Modeling vs. Forecasting: The Case of Information Systems Spending.

Author List: Gurbaxani, Vijay; Mendelson, Haim;
Information Systems Research, 1994, Volume 5, Issue 2, Page 180-190.
Collopy, Adya and Armstrong (1994) (CAA) advocate the use of atheoretical "black box" extrapolation techniques to forecast information systems spending. In this paper, we contrast this approach with the positive modeling approach of Gurbaxani and Mendelson (1990), where the primary focus is on explanation based on economics and innovation diffusion theory. We argue that the objectives and premises of extrapolation techniques are so fundamentally different from those of positive modeling that the evaluation of positive models using the criteria of "black box" forecasting approaches is inadequate. We further show that even if one were to accept CAA's premises, their results are stilt inferior. Our results refute CAA's claim that linear trend extrapolations are appropriate for forecasting future IS spending and demonstrate the risks of ignoring the guidance of theory.
Keywords: Exponential Smoothing; Forecasting; Information Systems Spending; Positive Models
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#226 0.288 models linear heterogeneity path nonlinear forecasting unobserved alternative modeling methods different dependence paths efficient distribution probabilities demonstrate observed heterogeneous probability
#44 0.167 approach analysis application approaches new used paper methodology simulation traditional techniques systems process based using proposed method present provides various
#104 0.154 action research engagement principles model literature actions focus provides developed process emerging establish field build guidance known project elements insights
#159 0.107 systems information objectives organization organizational development variety needs need efforts technical organizations developing suggest given effective designing lack help recent
#166 0.091 negative positive effect findings results effects blog suggest role blogs posts examined period relationship employees research employee bloggers reveal companies
#48 0.066 dimensions electronic multidimensional game transactions relative contrast channels theory sustained model predict dimension mixture evolutionary results unique traditional likely finite