Early Predictions of Movie Success: The Who, What, and When of Profitability

Author List: Lash, Michael T; Zhao, Kang;
Journal of Management Information Systems, 2016, Volume 33, Issue 3, Page 874-903.
We focus on predicting the profitability of a movie to support movie-investment decisions at early stages of film production. By leveraging data from various sources, and using social network analysis and text mining techniques, the proposed system extracts several types of features, including ÒwhoÓ is in the cast, ÒwhatÓ a movie is about, ÒwhenÓ a movie will be released, as well as ÒhybridÓ features. Experiment results showed that the system outperforms benchmark methods by a large margin. Novel features we proposed made weighty contributions to the prediction. In addition to designing a decision support system with practical utility, we also analyzed key factors of movie profitability. Furthermore, we demonstrated the prescriptive value of our system by illustrating how it can be used to recommend a set of profit-maximizing cast members. This research highlights the power of predictive and prescriptive data analytics in information systems to aid business decisions. > >
Keywords: decision support ;movie investments ;movie profitability; predictive analytics ;prescriptive analytics ;social network analysis ;text mining
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#137 0.180 phase study analysis business early large types phases support provided development practice effectively genres associated different sensemaking including form technologies
#133 0.154 data predictive analytics sharing big using modeling set power inference behavior explanatory related prediction statistical generated substantially novel building million
#260 0.151 policy movie demand features region effort second threshold release paid number regions analyze period respect availability released lower effect results
#215 0.123 data classification statistical regression mining models neural methods using analysis techniques performance predictive networks accuracy method variables prediction problem measure
#271 0.104 technology investments investment information firm firms profitability value performance impact data higher evidence diversification industry payoff return findings decisions greater
#177 0.060 decision accuracy aid aids prediction experiment effects accurate support making preferences interaction judgment hybrid perceptual strategy account context restrictiveness taking
#198 0.053 factors success information critical management implementation study factor successful systems support quality variables related results key model csf importance determinants
#249 0.053 network networks social analysis ties structure p2p exchange externalities individual impact peer-to-peer structural growth centrality participants sharing economic ownership embeddedness